Microsoft Corporation
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
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Signal
Expected Return
Confidence
Target Price ()
Key Drivers
Prediction Mode in Use
Enhanced Fundamental Analysis
This prediction combines fundamental analysis with technical price momentum. The system scans your company's historical financial statements (revenue, EPS, ROE, margins, debt ratios) from SEC EDGAR, enriches each report with post-earnings price reactions from Yahoo Finance, and also evaluates daily/weekly Open-to-Close OHLC price trends from your local price history database. If technical price action confirms the fundamental direction, confidence increases — if it contradicts, a penalty is applied.
How Confidence is Calculated
Confidence uses a transparent heuristic — not a black-box ML model. Each of the 6 trend categories acts as a piece of evidence:
- • 5 Fundamental — EPS trend, ROE trajectory, margin direction, leverage change, post-earnings history
- • 1 Technical — OHLC price momentum alignment (Open vs Close trends from your local
daily_price_historiestable)
Technical Alignment acts as a trend confirmation check: if daily/weekly price candles are moving in the same direction as the fundamental signal, confidence gets a +10% boost. If price action contradicts fundamentals, confidence receives a −10% penalty. Final confidence is clamped between 30% (floor) and 95% (cap).
POST /api/v1/train)
can be trained on OHLCV price history for ML-based price forecasting. The dashboard uses
fundamental mode because it provides interpretable, driver-based signals — you can see
why the AI made its decision.
Formula
40% base + ( fundamental drivers × 10%) + (1 technical alignment driver × 10%) =
Score Components
Driver Scorecard
🟢 Positive
🔴 Negative
Net Score
Net Score = Positive − Negative drivers. This determines the final trading signal.
Signal Rules
The 6 Trend Checks (This Prediction Mode)
The system scans your company's imported financial statements for these 6 trend categories. Each one found adds +10% confidence and counts toward the BUY/SELL/HOLD signal. These come from two data sources: SEC EDGAR financials and Yahoo Finance price history.
daily_price_histories table for net price change %, green/red candle ratio, and trend direction.
Source: Local DB (daily_price_histories) — Alignment = +10% confidence | Contradiction = −10% penalty
Data sources:
Checks 1–4 use SEC EDGAR XBRL financials imported via "Import SEC Data".
Check 5 uses Yahoo Finance post-earnings price reactions.
Check 6 uses your local price history database (daily_price_histories table)
populated by the OHLC data fetcher — no external API call needed.
🔬 Technical Price Alignment
Fundamental Direction
Technical Signal
Net Price Change
Data Points
Interpretation Guide
30–49%
Low confidence
Few or no trends detected.
Proceed with caution.
50–69%
Moderate confidence
Some trends visible.
Use as one data point.
70–95%
High confidence
Multiple trends aligned.
Stronger signal.
Feature Importance
Financial Statements
| Period | Filing | Revenue | Net Income | EPS | P/E | D/E | FCF | ROE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|